In one of his last podcasts Between Worlds futurist Mike Walsh talked to Henry Mason, head of Trendwatching.com....
When a good idea falls into the chasm of bad execution
Reports by Mary Meeker, a well-known analyst from Kleiner Perkins Caufield&Byers, probably does not need any introduction to anybody from the Internet industry. Every year, KPCB publishes a comprehensive compendium of knowledge about the current state of online media, outlining the distinctive trends for several years perspective.
The latest edition of this report has just come out into the open, so – as usual – straight away I began to read and analyze. Due to the fact that I waded through these 220 pages, filled with valuable information but not always given in the most approachable way (visual aspect is the most common and probably the only objection to the author) I decided to select for you the most important facts from the report, that are worth noting.
Although some data presented below relates to the US market, in the context of changes taking place in the area of online media, you can treat it as a good reference point. The American market is often a pioneering space for many innovations. And trends that gain momentum in the USA reach other countries belatedly, because their mass redistribution and adaptation takes time.
The global production of smartphones dramatically slows down. After 5 years of high growth 2015 ended with an increase in production of only + 10%. For comparison, in the 2014 this value fluctuated around 25%. As for the operating system, the undisputed leader invariably is Android.
In the USA the sector of online advertising recorded a 4% increase (+ 16% vs. + 20% Y / Y), in relation to the total market value. What’s even more interesting, 66% increase in comparison with 2014 was recorded in the sector of mobile advertising. I wonder how the development of this branch of advertising will affect the growing trend of Ad blocking (particularly important within mobile devices), which is discussed below.
Blocking ads on the Internet is a phenomenon which globally is gaining the strength. While on stationary equipment (including laptops) it runs, until now, gently, the use of Ad Block on mobile devices it is a change that takes place very dramatically (global number of Ad Block users year to year has doubled [+ 94%]) .The predictions in this area are clear: a growing number of Internet users will want to protect themselves from intrusive and out-of-context advertising.
Internet advertising expenditure every year noticeably increases. The graph below and the gap between the amount of spending on the Internet and television shows it in the best way. Good point from KPCB – each successive new marketing channel is growing much faster than existing channels. It is also easily noticeable on the graph below.
Facebook, then for a long time nothing, and finally Instagram and Snapchat. That’s how in a nutshell you can describe the state of social media taking into consideration their penetration and engagement of attention of users aged from 18 to 34 (the so called Millennials). In the vast majority they are based on the visual message, which – another consecutive year – confirms that this type of content is for today’s audiences extremely approachable and desirable
Depending on the client’s age we can distinguish more or less effective form of establishing contact with him by companies. The younger generation clearly prefers instant contact, “here and now”, without leaving the Internet – live chat within the company website or contact with the brand through social media. The older generation, the more popular and effective way of contact is the traditional one – a phone call.
Writing on touch screens or keyboards in the relatively near future may be completely displaced by voice commands. Increasingly, the main interface to communicate with devices vide become any assistive devices such as Amazon Echo, Samsung Otto, Jiboand soon Google Home, which, based on the resources of the Internet giant has a chance to quickly become the no.1 in this sector. According to the latest research in the next five years half of all searches in the network will be based on voice commands or search for a pictorial. In 2016, the accuracy of recognition of words through Google’s algorithms will hover around 90%.
If we compare the time that we spend each month on the movement using vehicles (including omnifarious urban transport) to the time spent in particular social networking sites, this movement would be the third activity of all. On average, it takes us 19 hours a month. Passing the steering wheel into the “hands” of technology of autonomous driving will gradually release that time to spend it on resting, entertainment or working.
Problems with sensitive data do not belong to novelties. Technology is all around us and its growth also increases our more or less conscious activity in different Internet ecosystems. It has an impact on the increase in the number and diversity of worries related to information security that we use in the network.
Progressive process of reinforcing the non-tech companies is a good example of it. It consists mainly of acquisition or financing of promising companies in the technology industry. Disney (entertainment), Walmart (trade), Under Armour (sport), Visa (payment), and it is only a small percentage of companies that are seeking potential for growth in new technologies. In comparison to 2012, we now have 2 times more of this type of “shopping” or investment. Nowadays, every business is or will soon become, a technology company.
The full version of the document can be found and downloaded on the Slideshare account of KPCB company. I encourage.